Now that’s interesting – the BBC1 Leaders Debate managed only 7.3 million/28% share, well down from the 9.5 million for the first ITV debate two weeks ago. As I suggested in my previous blog, the relatively low rating for the Sky News debate last week may have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the televised debate. The unchanging format which provided little variety from one show to the next, the repetitive subjects, the inability of Nick Clegg to top his first debate performance, and just general election fatigue – all could explain this dip.
So it seems comparing the election debates with the performance of reality shows is perhaps a bit of a stretch after all. Although it would not be possible under election rules to vote out one of the leaders in the second and third debates, perhaps the programmes could have developed more momentum and suspense. But of course that’s impossible – viewers/voters must wait another week to cast their verdict.
For three weeks the politicians gate-crashed television’s entertainment formatted world – but their format was so inflexible, and allowed so little interaction with the public, that the novelty began to wear off pretty quickly. I’m going to add a couple more reasons why this particular debate started running out of steam – David Dimbleby is too patrician for an entertainment show, the BBC's shiny set too grandiose, and consequently the programme failed to generate sufficient tension, so the leaders just looked over-heated.
I also predicted last week that if the third and final debate did not rate over 10 million, it would be a sign that the Lib Dem bandwagon was losing momentum. The result of the instant polls seem to confirm that.
There was one more sign that when it comes to television, viewers tolerance of election shows is limited - a fair number of viewers, 3.2 million, simply preferred the European football on Five over the politicians. Good job Britain's Got Talent wasn't on ITV at the time.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
Who'll win the Live Election Final?
How will this week’s third and final election leaders debate rate? The first, two weeks ago, had the sensational outcome of being a real game-changer, catapulting Nick Clegg to a 30% share of voting intentions. This week it’s no exaggeration to suggest that the outcome of the election could depend on a single 90 minute programme.
In my previous blog I suggested that the audience benchmark had been set few by the figures achieved last year by the Question Time programme featuring the BNP, which had 8.3 million viewers. This pointed to the debate achieving a substantial audience. So it proved with 9.5 million people watching the ITV programme.
Last week’s follow-up debate on Sky also delivered big, by the standards of a digital channel, but not on the same scale as the first ITV1 debate. According to Attentional, the audience on Sky News as an impressive 2.1 million and taking into account simulcasts and repeats, the debate had an audience of 4.4 million.
However, although this was a big audience by digital standards, it was not significant in terms of being able to move the polls. For the pundits the significance of the debate was the inability of the two major parties to peg-back Clegg. For the TV audience-watcher the question it raises is whether the gap between the first and second debate will impact on the audience for the third debate on BBC1.
If this were a conventional reality competition, the fact that the second show had less than half of the audience of the first would be taken as a sign of lack of interest from the audience. Different conventions apply here. More likely the nation will turn to the BBC, as it does for other major occasions, such as the World Cup, in order to make up its mind.
In which case the audience figure to watch is that which is being achieved by the one of the biggest competition shows on TV, Britain’s Got Talent which had an audience of over 10 million for its second show in the new series, last Saturday. It seems highly likely that the leaders debate will draw a bigger audience than the first ITV debate, so a 10 million-plus audience should be on the cards.
Of course,if it turns out that the Sky News debate took some of the wind out of the sails of the election programmes, then 10 million may turn out to be something of a challenge. If the show rates lower than the ITV programme, it’s likely to spell bad news for the Liberal Democrats.
So who will win the final Leader’s Debate? Sometimes in these talent competitions, the unheralded contender who emerges from the early auditions falls narrowly at the final hurdle to a more conventional figure. Sometimes, however, the final provides the impetus to stardom. Is Nick Clegg’s unexpected breakthrough going to propel him to a phenomenal win, like Susan Boyle. Or could the voting intentions of the electorate diverge from their viewing patterns at the last minute?
In my previous blog I suggested that the audience benchmark had been set few by the figures achieved last year by the Question Time programme featuring the BNP, which had 8.3 million viewers. This pointed to the debate achieving a substantial audience. So it proved with 9.5 million people watching the ITV programme.
Last week’s follow-up debate on Sky also delivered big, by the standards of a digital channel, but not on the same scale as the first ITV1 debate. According to Attentional, the audience on Sky News as an impressive 2.1 million and taking into account simulcasts and repeats, the debate had an audience of 4.4 million.
However, although this was a big audience by digital standards, it was not significant in terms of being able to move the polls. For the pundits the significance of the debate was the inability of the two major parties to peg-back Clegg. For the TV audience-watcher the question it raises is whether the gap between the first and second debate will impact on the audience for the third debate on BBC1.
If this were a conventional reality competition, the fact that the second show had less than half of the audience of the first would be taken as a sign of lack of interest from the audience. Different conventions apply here. More likely the nation will turn to the BBC, as it does for other major occasions, such as the World Cup, in order to make up its mind.
In which case the audience figure to watch is that which is being achieved by the one of the biggest competition shows on TV, Britain’s Got Talent which had an audience of over 10 million for its second show in the new series, last Saturday. It seems highly likely that the leaders debate will draw a bigger audience than the first ITV debate, so a 10 million-plus audience should be on the cards.
Of course,if it turns out that the Sky News debate took some of the wind out of the sails of the election programmes, then 10 million may turn out to be something of a challenge. If the show rates lower than the ITV programme, it’s likely to spell bad news for the Liberal Democrats.
So who will win the final Leader’s Debate? Sometimes in these talent competitions, the unheralded contender who emerges from the early auditions falls narrowly at the final hurdle to a more conventional figure. Sometimes, however, the final provides the impetus to stardom. Is Nick Clegg’s unexpected breakthrough going to propel him to a phenomenal win, like Susan Boyle. Or could the voting intentions of the electorate diverge from their viewing patterns at the last minute?
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Gordon or David, or...Dorothy?
Last night’s Question Time, running on a Wednesday instead of Thursday heralded the start of an election campaign which will have as its TV highlight the big innovation of the three debates with the party leaders, the first of which will be on 15th April at 8.30pm on ITV1. With only the two million viewers for last night's Question Time,it puts the spotlight on the leader debates. How popular do we think they will be? I think we can assume they will draw more substantial audiences than a standard post 10 O'Clock News edition of Question Time as there’s a real public appetite for knowledge and an established interest in set-piece debates.
In fact it was an edition of Question Time which set the benchmark for recent political debate - last year’s Question Time featuring the BNP’s Nick Griffin had an audience of 8.3 million/50% share, with almost a million more watching on the iPlayer. Bearing in mind that the leaders debate will occupy 90 primetime minutes, the figure of 8 million should be a realistic target for what will be a first on television in this country. Will the two following debates match it? Much depends on whether the format proves entertaining enough.
If the dry run with the Chancellors on Channel 4 last week is anything to go on, then there seems to be some strength of interest in political debate for this election. Ask the Chancellors had a strong audience of 1.7 million/7% share in the Monday night 8pm Dispatches slot, well ahead of most of the current affairs programmes which occupy that slot.
One reason why viewers will embrace the debates can be found in the weekend’s entertainment shows – people love to engage in voting competitons, such as the latest Lloyd-Webber search for a star competition, BBC1’s Over the Rainbow. There is a however a gulf between the most effective of voting competitions, ITV’s X Factor, and weaker strains of the genre – Over the Rainbow’s Saturday show had 5.4 million/25% share at 7.30pm, following in the slipstream of the new Dr Who which launched with 7.6 million/35% share. In contrast Sunday’s Over the Rainbow results show had just 3.6 million/19% share at 6.15pm, suggesting the audience has not engaged with the competition in this early stage.
The worst thing that could happen to the politicians is that the public decide, after the first debate, that the format or the contestants are not sufficiently interesting. There are flaws with the format – just three contestants and only three programmes. In the entertainment world, the programmes would be spread over a longer period of time.
And perhaps crucially, we should bear in mind that there’s no telephone vote at the end of the three debates. Anyone who wants to vote in the next leader of the country will have to wait a few days and then leave the house in order to make the trip to an polling-booth in an old fashioned sort of way. Maybe these flaws will put the ratings potential of political debate as entertainment to a serious test. On the other hand, evidence from America suggests the debates are also capable of creating drama to match the final of most entertainment shows. I suppose the good news is, we’ll know who’s going to be the next Prime Minister before the nation chooses the next Dorothy.
In fact it was an edition of Question Time which set the benchmark for recent political debate - last year’s Question Time featuring the BNP’s Nick Griffin had an audience of 8.3 million/50% share, with almost a million more watching on the iPlayer. Bearing in mind that the leaders debate will occupy 90 primetime minutes, the figure of 8 million should be a realistic target for what will be a first on television in this country. Will the two following debates match it? Much depends on whether the format proves entertaining enough.
If the dry run with the Chancellors on Channel 4 last week is anything to go on, then there seems to be some strength of interest in political debate for this election. Ask the Chancellors had a strong audience of 1.7 million/7% share in the Monday night 8pm Dispatches slot, well ahead of most of the current affairs programmes which occupy that slot.
One reason why viewers will embrace the debates can be found in the weekend’s entertainment shows – people love to engage in voting competitons, such as the latest Lloyd-Webber search for a star competition, BBC1’s Over the Rainbow. There is a however a gulf between the most effective of voting competitions, ITV’s X Factor, and weaker strains of the genre – Over the Rainbow’s Saturday show had 5.4 million/25% share at 7.30pm, following in the slipstream of the new Dr Who which launched with 7.6 million/35% share. In contrast Sunday’s Over the Rainbow results show had just 3.6 million/19% share at 6.15pm, suggesting the audience has not engaged with the competition in this early stage.
The worst thing that could happen to the politicians is that the public decide, after the first debate, that the format or the contestants are not sufficiently interesting. There are flaws with the format – just three contestants and only three programmes. In the entertainment world, the programmes would be spread over a longer period of time.
And perhaps crucially, we should bear in mind that there’s no telephone vote at the end of the three debates. Anyone who wants to vote in the next leader of the country will have to wait a few days and then leave the house in order to make the trip to an polling-booth in an old fashioned sort of way. Maybe these flaws will put the ratings potential of political debate as entertainment to a serious test. On the other hand, evidence from America suggests the debates are also capable of creating drama to match the final of most entertainment shows. I suppose the good news is, we’ll know who’s going to be the next Prime Minister before the nation chooses the next Dorothy.
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