Grade inflation?

News that Michael Grade is to give up as ITV chief executive has sent the papers into a spin in search of the next CEO. Most focus on the business problems caused by the recession which has turned Grade's tenure at ITV into a particularly awful time. The notion that the network's programme performance has improved is widely accepted - as is often the case with Michael Grade, timing is everything and in this case he's bowing out while Britain's Got Talent is enjoying a spectucular run, fired up by the YouTube phenomenon Susan Boyle.

There is a problem with the 'programmes good, business bad' spin on ITV. It is that the network's fortunes depend entirely on a handful of mega-shows which eclipse almost all other shows, including the soaps. There's a widespread belief that the network's schedule is in transition - yet at 6pm it still has the unloved regional news shows. We'll know the transition is really in full-swing when ITV1 schedules a chatshow or quiz at 6pm.

For all that it says it has changed, ITV1 remains an old-fashioned network with a few contemporary hits. So although Britain's Got Talent audience figures are crucial to ITV's audience figures, the company's financials point to its long term future. As the FT reported this morning: "A company with a market capitalisation of £4.4bn before Mr Grade’s revival plan is now worth less than £1.3bn."

In fact it says something about the fragility of the schedule improvement that a show like Hell's Kitchen, stripped across primetime and generously resourced, is only drawing around 4 million. But even if Hell's Kitchen had rated at double that figure last night, would it make much difference in the context of that capitalisation number?

Best not to let Talent's success create a false sense of security. It's difficult to see ITV surviving much longer as an independent company. When Michael Grade first joined ITV I wrote in my column that he tends to be a lucky guy - Britain's Got Talent gave him an almost immediate boost. Actually, on reflection, he's really a guy with great timing, and this week's announcement show's he hasn't lost his touch.